In GST and inflation, Pakatan hopes to snare the rural vote

For PAS leader Dr Idris Ahmad, the rise in the cost of living is going to change the political future of rural Perak.

Even hardcore Umno supporters that he has met are chaffing under higher petrol prices. Next year, these people are gritting their teeth in anticipation of a rise in prices after electricity tariffs go up for businesses.

“They are hurting and they are angry, and this is even before the GST (goods and services tax) comes into force in 2015,” Idris told The Malaysian Insider.

The Bukit Gantang MP's mood reflects the guarded optimism of many in Pakatan Rakyat's (PR) leadership and grassroots.

That higher prices for everyone even in the interior would break the psychological hold that the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) has over them.

But in order for this to happen, PR needs to tackle the steep challenge of poverty and lack of awareness that has made rural folk go back to BN again and again.

In recent days, the BN government and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak have been at pains to explain the need for subsidy cuts and higher rates to protect the economy in the long term, an oft-repeated refrain in past economic downturns.

Pain is starting to spread

A street vendor selling T-shirts with logos of anti-goods and services tax (GST) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) with an image of US President Barack Obama at an anti-GST campaign called ‘Understand GST, Reject GST’ in Kuala Lumpur on Friday. – The Malaysian Insider pic by Najjua Zulkefli, December 22, 2013. For the time being, public opinion shows that discontent towards BN is real. Anger is percolating over the bleak economic outlook of lower subsidies and higher prices in 2014.

A Merdeka Center survey between December 4 and 12 shows that 47% of those polled were pessimistic about the rise in the cost of living.

The survey was conducted after the Government cut fuel and sugar subsidies and announced that toll and electricity prices would go up.

It was also after Budget 2014, when it was announced that the GST would be introduced in 2015.  

More respondents, 49% felt that the country was going in the wrong direction, as opposed to 41%, who said it was in the right direction.

And of the 49%, the majority, 45%, said it was due to inflation or unfavourable economic conditions.

Critically, 45% of the rural respondents felt that the country was headed in the wrong direction.

Also, the number of Malay respondents who felt happy with the Government dropped from 67% to 52%.

The results present an opportunity for PAS especially, since it is the chief rival to Umno for the rural vote.

As pointed out by Terengganu PAS leader Nik Zawawi Nik Salleh, the Islamist party did well among urban Malay voters in the 13th general election.

It captured almost all the urban seats it contested in Terengganu, Kelantan, Perak and Selangor. It also increased its support in Pahang and Johor.

“Malays in urban areas rejected Umno. It’s the rural seats we have trouble with. It’s a problem of awareness and education. This is why in some rural seats, we see even non-Muslims voting for BN.”

Connecting GST to votes
It’s against this backdrop that PR and several non-governmental organisations (NGOs) launched its anti-GST campaign, “Understand GST, Reject GST” on December 20.

The campaign will see roadshows held throughout the country, said Suara Anak Muda Malaysia (SAMM) coordinator Badrul Hisham Shahrin.  

One of its aims is to counter the current media blitz by the Federal Government to promote the GST ahead of its implementation in 2015, he said.

“The Government wants people to just accept the GST. But many still do not know what it is about. So we have to educate them,” he said.

This is borne out in the Merdeka Center survey where 55% of respondents said they were unsure of how the GST would affect them.

The roadshow is expected to delve on the current price hikes and how people can expect things to further go up under the GST.

Although the launch was largely a mega-ceramah with a series of PR leaders giving speech after speech, the roadshow itself will be fine-tuned to provide easily digestible information.

Although it will be open to the public, its main audience is expected to consist of PR grassroots leaders, local community activists and village heads allied to the coalition, since they are the day-to-day contact points for voters.

And it is leaders like Idris who are the most excited by its potential to arm party workers with talking points that can be taken directly to rural folk.

"It’s not enough that people are angry over high price of goods. In our experience, this type of emotion doesn’t last.

"With low-income voters especially, BN can just come in on the eve of an election and just throw BR1M and then the anger dissipates. So we have to educate people."

That phenomenon is reflected in the pollster's survey. Some 57% of respondents earning less than RM1,500 a month felt that the country was going in the right direction even though they are the ones who would most likely feel the pain of inflation.

This time, PR hopes to deal with that by connecting the pain of higher prices now and after the GST to the votes that rural folk gave to BN in the last general election.

The coalition would offer its own plans on how to deal with inflation, such as by renegotiating highway and power generation agreements, to bring down the prices of toll and electricity, Idris said.

It is this sharpening of voter anger by showing how a vote affects policy and how that policy comes back to affect them that has helped PR and PAS gain the urban Malay vote.

"When voters become wise, like in the urban areas where we spread our message through the Internet, the anger they feel is carried through in the ballot box.” – December 22, 2013.