GHB: new hope or no hope?

PAS has always been the traditional opponent of Umno. What Umno has been able to do with race, PAS have been able to do with religion. Race and religion have been the backbone of Malay politics since Merdeka and will likely remain that way for quite some time.

And so what has been dreaded by some and hoped for by others has come to pass. PAS finally split into two. Within both Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat camps, opinions are divided on how this would bode for the future of our country’s politics.

The optimists in BN are rejoicing with the split – the conservatives and the liberals have split and pressure is now on PKR, especially in Selangor, where PAS still accounts for a huge chunk of the Pakatan political power base.

The pessimists would fear that instead of now facing a lethargic, weary opposition front, the renewed interest and vigour, especially among the non-Malay voters would pose a threat to their plans to recapture lost ground.

Likewise,the optimists in Pakatan are also rejoicing – now finally, at long last, there can be one unequivocal voice of the opposition, one viable alternative to form the next government.

Well, this is as far as Semenanjung politics is concerned. Not unlike the early days of the People’s Declaration and Buku Jingga, when fighting was scarcer and there was much more political goodwill between the members of the pact to go around.

However, pessimists in Pakatan, especially those involved in election work and campaigning are realistically aware of the logistical nightmare that will likely follow.

After all, Pakatan had been relying heavily on PAS’s grassroots mobilisation strategy and election machinery to form the effective base upon which Pakatan have been operating thus far.

While in theory the split will allow both the newly-formed Gerakan Harapan Baru (GHB) and PAS to spread their respective ideologies and, with them, their power bases even further than when they were competing for the same space, the reality is, PAS would not allow GHB to wriggle out so easily.

The general perception within PAS is that, GHB is a splinter, rogue group that, if left unpunished, would siphon away members slowly and whittle away at PAS’s traditional support base.

A split should not be tolerated and runs contrary to the obedient, wal’a spirit of PAS, which, ironically, is in itself a splinter party from Umno, and have, in the past, have had little qualms working with other splinter parties – Semangat 46, PKR, Berjasa and so on.

The accusation that GHB is trying to eat into PAS’s core support group does not really hold much water either.

GHB’s selling point is its moderate, cooperative brand of Islamic politics. The sort of politics that didn’t quite affect the East Coast, which have always supported the more firebrand, conservative type of Islamic politics brought by the religious conservatives in PAS. The sort of politics that saw PAS’s conservative camp boldly boot out the progressives that led to the formation of GHB in the first place.

As a seasoned party, PAS should well know that actions have consequences. Their action of aligning the party firmly to the ulama right caused a scramble within PKR and DAP to reassure their electorate that Pakatan is still moderate.

The actions of PAS following the eradication of the "Erdogans" also seemed erratic – motions to sever ties, press statements asking DAP and PKR to "respect" PAS, and reportedly calling its former partners "chauvinist", and similar communication in the vein of what you’d expect from a political foe rather than an ally desperately trying to keep the alliance intact.

And now, a new, more marketable party to the urban voters is now available and suddenly PAS finds itself isolated from its partners and is pushing the blame back to GHB. PAS is going into overdrive painting GHB members as traitors and rather arrogantly dismissing them off.

The truth remains, PAS knows it, it cannot go at it alone. Rather than dwell on it, perhaps it would be more prudent for PAS to leave GHB to their own devices, to develop their own political base in the south and perhaps lay the groundwork to form a pact with them and with Pakatan to take on Barisan in the next elections.

GHB on its part should carve out a niche electorate of its own. It will take time, but if it does not progress from its current urban support base, it would add little value to Pakatan other than to lend it some semblance of Islamic credentials that PKR cannot yet supply. Other than that, it would only chip off seat allocations from its other two partners, which may lead to dissatisfactions, squabbles and sabotage.

If left unchecked in its current collision course, GHB and PAS’s impending quarrel would only serve to deliver more irate voters to Umno, which would be counterproductive to having a mature democracy with a two-party system.

Perhaps the emphasis of Malaysian political parties in general should also rapidly shift from racial and religious polemics to more pressing issues, like the economy.

For example, while the country spent the last three months or so arguing about everything from sarongs to handphones from racial and religious lenses, the Malaysian Ringgit has slowly slid down and is now trading at RM4.05 to US$1.

Surely that would affect our imports and exports far more than whether or not we implement a dress code for our gymnasts. – July 21, 2015.

* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insider.