To quit, or not to quit

The buzz in Umno of late is that Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin wants out.

And the man taking over as DPM is Umno VP No. 3 Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein. Not Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, the VP No. 1 as “many” had expected.

But first things first. Is Muhyiddin really resigning?

“He should,” said a “well-connected” Umno man going on to list out what he see as Muhyiddin’s “inefficiency, shortcoming and weaknesses”.

All of which said he, “is no good for the party”. Hence, “he should go”.

Such an “assessment” is subjective, of course, and I’ll leave it there. The thing is – he “should” (resign) and “is he” (resigning) are different matters altogether.

Said a veteran Umno watcher, Muhyiddin’s “departure” is no secret in Umno and “in fact many party members feel this Umno general assembly (November 25-29) will be his last as deputy president”.

That would mean they expect Muhyiddin to complete his term as Umno deputy president (which is to run until 2016) and take a final bow come the next assembly. Or maybe, a bit earlier.

“Many say even if stays on he will be challenged for the number two post in the next party elections.” So said the party watcher, claiming he “dug out” the info from Umno “reliable contacts”.

Still there are Umno folk who see Muhyiddin making a quick exit i.e. before his term is up.

Against such a backdrop, comes the “talk” of Hishammuddin being groomed or already picked by Datuk Seri Najib Razak to be Muhyiddin’s successor. To be Najib’s second in command in government.

All that based on how the Umno fraternity “reads the political situation and going-ons”. Politicians that they are, Umno leaders and members alike, love to “analyse” and “read between the lines”. So to speak.

And just what are their “readings”?

For one, when Najib opened the recent Selangor Umno convention, it was Hisham who officiated the closing ceremony later in the day, having to fly from Terengganu where he attended another Umno do. (Najib is head of Selangor Umno as well.)

Zahid, meanwhile, attended an official government event (a seminar on jihad v militant) while Muhyiddin’s duty was to grace the Malaysia Cup final and present the coveted trophy to the winners.

Many see that as an endorsement of Hisham. A signal from Najib.

Then there’s the committee tasked to vet resolutions for this year’s Umno assembly. Put simply,  a committee which can “determine” or rather set the tone for proceedings by deciding what can be debated and what cannot. The committee as we know is headed by Hisham.

A source in Umno HQ tells me it’s normal for a VP be assigned to head the committee. But the fact remained that Najib or “ibu pejabat” picked Hisham instead of Zahid or Datuk Seri  Shafie Apdal, the other VP in Umno.

Anyway a point of contention among Umno members is that Zahid is naib presiden nombor satu by virtue of garnering the highest number of votes in the VP race at last year’s party elections while Hisham came in third.

By convention VP No. 1 is the choice for any “promotion” should a situation warrant it. And as we know, Umno deputy president equals deputy PM. That has always been the equation. Thus far.

But Umno has seen VP No. 3 being picked before when in 1976 Tun Hussein Onn chose  (Tun) Dr Mahathir Mohamad as DPM ahead of (Tun) Ghafar Baba and Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah who came in first and second respectively in the  Umno VP elections a year earlier.

“True it happened before but that was at a time when Umno’s strength was not in question. Masa tu Umno solid boleh lah pakai sifir tu. Sekarang sifir sudah lain,” the Umno strategist retorted.

However, said the Umno watcher, Najib could very well “prefer” Hisham as his cousin enjoys a high profile internationally compared with Zahid , what with his good command of the English language and what-not.

To that, the Umno strategist had this to say: “Hisham should not leverage on his popularity with MH17, MH370”, obviously referring to the praise heaped on Hisham on the way he “handled” the situation, especially his fielding of hard questions posed by the international media.

And he went on to say by-passing Zahid “will not be good for Umno” to which the  Umno watcher concurred, saying from information gathered, Umno members generally feel by-passing Zahid is a “serious matter and can even cause cracks in the party, something an already weak Umno can ill afford”.

“It can’t be denied Zahid is popular in Umno. And if Hisham is seen as loyal to Najib so, too, is Zahid, if loyalty is a criterion, that is. Remember Zahid was at one time Najib’s political secretary many years ago,” said the party watcher who has been “observing” Umno since the late 1970s as a party activist then.

Still, some Umno members opined in the event difficult decisions have to be made “a compromise must be worked out without hurting Zahid and Hisham”.

There are others who feel it will not come to that as Najib need both VPs to “make him stronger”.

Umno members seen as pro-Muhyiddin and self-proclaimed neutrals dismissed the whole Muhyiddin quit episode as speculation or “some higher ups, including Najib, testing waters”. Elaboration was not given though.

Nonetheless a party leader from Perak, known to be outspoken, has this to say: “If there’s  anyone who should  go for the sake of Umno, then its Najib himself. Follow Muhyiddin and get Zahid and and Hisham to be number one and two”.

Well anyway, now it is said that Muhyiddin, despite earlier contemplating resignation, is having a change of heart upon his return from haj recently.

That’s one headache less for Najib. He doesn’t have to make a hard decision (choosing Hisham or Zahid). At least for now. – November 20, 2014.

* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insider.