With the abject thumping at the hands of Liverpool on Saturday, so begins two months of football which could make or break Arsenal's season – 12 matches in eight weeks (including last Saturday's visit to Anfield).
For an easier understanding of this scheduling conundrum for the North London side, let me break down this monstrously tricky schedule into three parts.
The curtain rises
We begin this tale of potential glory or potential woe at a blistering pace – four fixtures in three different competitions against quality opposition. Arsenal's schedule reads:
February 8 – Liverpool (away) – 5-1 defeat
February 12 – Manchester United (home)
February 16 – Liverpool (home, FA Cup 5th Round)
February 19 – Bayern Munich (home, UEFA Champions League Round of 16) We have already dissected the match against Liverpool in a previous column entry, and it stands as an inauspicious beginning to what seems to be a truly competitive run of fixtures for Arsene Wenger's men.
This immediate fortnight will set the tone for the remainder of this season – further progress in the FA Cup could turn into a bane as the scheduling gets tighter towards the end of the season and squads are being stretched thin.
Also, a Cup tie set three days before a massive clash with the freight-train that is Bayern Munich does not help matters either. Do not be surprised if Wenger decides to rest his favoured starting 11 for a shot at nicking a result in the Champions League to take with them to the return leg.
One must also make special note of the match against Manchester United (MU) at the Emirates tonight (tomorrow, 3.45am, Malaysian time).
The Arsenal players should rightly be fuming with themselves over their abject performance at Old Trafford back in November, and a resounding win against this MU side would be invaluable for morale and momentum.
MU's greatest performance in the league this season was at home against Arsenal, so can David Moyes make it a double?
Defeat to the Gunners would realistically put to rest any notion of top-level European competition next season, and for a marketing machine such as MU, this digression could prove painful.
Then comes Bayern Munich… unstoppable last season, there seems to be no sign of Pep Guardiola's men slowing down. Aside from the obvious narratives at work – Big English side up against big German side, who wore it better: Guardiola v Wenger?, etc – the significance of this fixture needs further elaboration.
The ensuing result from this match will do Wenger a great deal of good as he can realistically set down the remaining goals for the season, as follows:
1. Defeat Bayern at home (with a clean sheet, ideally) and the Frenchman might decide to go all in, challenging on both (three, if the FA Cup tie with Liverpool ends in victory) domestic and continental fronts.
2. Lose to Bayern at home, and Wenger could very well (depending on the severity of the defeat) phone in the second leg and focus on the quest for his fourth Premier League title.
The slight breather
After a thrilling opening, the dust settles into a more manageable three fixtures in 14 days, none of whom are in the position to challenge for a European berth next season (though depending on results, Swansea City might still be making progress in the Europa League).
February 22 – Sunderland (home)
March 1 – Stoke City (away)
March 8 – Swansea City (home)
Compared with the previous four matches (and the five that come after this) this run of fixtures should be considered routine wins for Arsenal – every point counts, and wins against mid-table sides will be crucial come May.
Regardless of form, Wenger (and fans) should expect nothing but win after win after win if Arsenal are to set the pace at the top of the league.
The roaring conclusion
Kicking things up a notch (or 10), this is truly primetime – a Champions League tie, two clashes against teams chasing a Champions League berth next season and two crucial dates with title rivals.
Two of these matches being London derbies only add to their importance. Check this out:
March 11 – Bayern Munich (away, CL Round of 16) – 2nd Leg
March 16 – Tottenham Hotspur (away)
March 22 – Chelsea (away)
March 29 – Manchester City (home)
April 5 – Everton (away)
The visit to the Allianz Arena will be crucial in deciding Arsenal's progress to the next stage in the Champions League.
A loss could very well rattle this Arsenal squad while a win will surely more than galvanise them with the belief that they can finally get over a trophy drought that has seemingly lasted an eternity in current football time.
The away tie at White Hart Lane comes at a critical stage in Arsenal's season – fresh off a Champions League second leg clash and into a London derby is not the ideal scenario.
After that gruelling week, Arsenal get five days to refresh mentally and physically.
They will need it as a soul-sapping visit to Stamford Bridge is up next, with master tactician Jose Mourinho already rubbing his hands with glee over another 1-0 victory he would be preparing for. This could potentially be a title-deciding six-pointer if results up to this point go the right way for both London sides.
This match being scheduled a day after the Champions League draw for the quarter-finals adds an element of unpredictability to this tie.
The involvement of either side in Europe at that point of the competition complicates matters for Arsenal, more so than Chelsea (the first legs will be played on April 1 and 2, and the second legs will be played on April 8 and 9).
Chelsea would be playing both legs of their (hypothetical) Champions League quarter-final between fixtures against Crystal Palace (away) and at home to Stoke City, whereas Arsenal would be playing both legs between the fixtures which we are looking at next – Manchester City (home) and Everton (away).
Manchester City travel to London at the end of March, four days after visiting neighbours MU at Old Trafford.
While Chelsea could benefit the most from their title rivals sharing the spoils, the match at the Emirates could come to encapsulate a season of rejuvenation not only for the respective sides but the Premier League as a whole, bouncing back from an underwhelming 2012-13.
Finally, Arsenal's visit to Everton could be the trickiest of all with a run at the European berths being very much up for grabs.
Roberto Martinez's men have Arsenal, Manchester United and Manchester City among their final six matches to determine qualification for Europe next season.
Everton's up-tempo football and relentless pressure could be difficult to deal with at this stage of the season for Wenger's men.
However, with the realisation that their final five Premier League fixtures are against beatable opposition (with the benefit of week-long breaks in between matches, Champions League and FA Cup progress not factored in), a win could truly cap-off a remarkable 56 days of football for a side certain to go down in the annals of history as having drawn the short end of the scheduling stick. – February 12, 2014.
* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insider.
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