Focus on marginal constituencies

When you don't have RM2.6 billion to spend, you have to not only work hard but also work smart to win the next general election (GE14).

The scorecard of the last general election (GE13) is this – Barisan Nasional (BN) won 133 of the 222 Parliamentary constituencies while then opposition coalition, Pakatan Rakyat (PR), won the remaining 89.

Of the 222 seats contested, 71 were won with less than a 10% margin, which meant that any vote swing of 5.1% or less would have changed the outcomes. Of these 71 seats, 43 were won by BN and 28 by PR.

Following Politweet's classification, BN won 33 rural seats with less than a 10% margin, seven semi-urban seats and three urban seats.  PR won eight rural seats (six by PAS and one each by DAP and PKR), 15 semi-urban seats and five urban seats.

Take Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi's constituency, P75 Bagan Datoh as an example. He won the seat with a 6.4% majority or 2,108 votes in a constituency with 39,924 eligible voters.

Assuming that the number of voters remains the same and the constituency boundaries will not be changed in the upcoming re-delineation exercise, a vote swing of 3.3%, or 1,055 votes, would mean that Zahid would lose his Parliamentary seat and, with that, his dream of becoming the next prime minister is dashed.  Now, isn't that an interesting thought.

His deputy in the Home Ministry, Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed is in an even more precarious position.  He won the urban seat of P161 Pulai in Johor with a 3.7% or 3,226 votes majority in a constituency with 100,490 eligible voters. A mere 1.9% swing (1,614 voters) would have meant that he is a goner by GE14.

Yes, he could still be a minister through the backdoor by being appointed a Senator but his prestige would be less without a mandate from the people.

So instead of looking at the enormity of the task of winning all 222 Federal seats or 112 seats for a simple majority or 134 seats for a comfortable majority and lose hope, the new opposition coalition, Pakatan Harapan, should focus on the 43 winnable seats currently held by BN and strengthen their support base in the 28 seats they won with less than 10% margins.

A whole lot of numbers, I know, but isn't winning elections a numbers game? And guess what? BN is also looking at precisely these numbers and these 71 marginal seats, and they are not without the resources to win what was lost at GE13 and to secure what was won narrowly. I wouldn't be surprised that they had already started right after GE13.

Furthermore, they have the advantage of working closely with the Election Commission (EC) to carve out "nice" polling districts or exclude "hostile" ones for themselves and have new advantageous boundaries in the upcoming re-delineation exercise.

What can Pakatan Harapan do as counter-measures?

They can do new voters' registration by working hand-in-hand with mobile units of EC, identify NGOs who have registered assistant registrar officers (AROs) and start a campaign to get eligible but unregistered voters to register themselves at post offices around the country.

Identify polling districts within these marginal seats that voted for BN in the last election and have activities there that would win them over. Identify key influencers and key local issues in such "hard grounds" and do your best to serve them.

After all, isn't winning political office about serving your constituents regardless whether they voted for you or not?

Another important thing the new Pakatan and every voter in these marginal constituencies can do is to participate in the re-delineation exercise. This is one exercise that the EC must do to restore electoral advantage to BN. It is the one thing that could pre-determine the outcome of any election.

The Federal Constitution under Section 5(b) of the 13th Schedule provides for affected voters to object within 30 days as a group of 100 or more voters to any proposal that they deem to have violated the principles found under Section 2 of the same Schedule. 
Cynics would just dismiss participation in the exercise and claim that the EC would just bulldoze its way through. That may be true but what is the alternative? Do nothing and let them manipulate the boundaries and our votes without being called to account or having the public made aware of such actions on their part? What right do we have to even complain when we were given the opportunity to participate and we did nothing?

Active participation in the re-delineation exercise in these marginal constituencies is a must. As an exercise, you must go to the ground to collect the 100 or more signatures per group of objectors and there are no limits to the number of groups in each constituency. In doing so, you would be creating awareness of the process and if there are any shenanigans, expose them for all the political mileage they are worth.

I am not saying ignore all other constituencies and focus only on these marginal ones. The groundwork for all the others, whether strong or weak seats, must be carried out but special attention should be paid to these winnable seats. Remember, in marginal constituencies, every vote really does count. – February 29, 2016.

* This is the personal opinion of the writer, organisation or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insider.