Why BN will win GE14

I know I am going to upset some friends and probably even lose a few with this article but I have to be brutally honest here. I think Barisan Nasional (BN) will win the 14th general election.

I have at least 10 reasons to support this conclusion but here is the first: the opposition coalition and parties are in disarray and despite the 1Malaysia Development Bhd scandal and unpopularity of the goods and services tax, they have not been able to exploit BN’s weaknesses and deliver it a mortal blow.

Since GE13, the opposition coalition has faltered from one drama to another, starting with the “Kajang move”, Selangor menteri besar saga, death of key stalwarts like Karpal Singh and PAS’s spiritual leader Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat and the jailing of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim in February for alleged sodomy of his former aide.

But the straw that broke the camel’s back came in July. The almost total annihilation of the progressive faction in PAS at their party elections and the declaration by the Syura Council to cut ties with DAP killed off Pakatan Rakyat as a political coalition.

The PAS progressives who lost then split from the party and formed Parti Amanah Negara in September and a week later, a new coalition called Pakatan Harapan(PH) was formed with Amanah, DAP and PKR.

The formation of the new opposition coalition was expected but the seeming haste to announce it took many by surprise.

Nonetheless, for the many supporters of the previous Pakatan, the formal announcement of the new Pakatan rekindled lost hopes that had been battered since GE13.

Could we finally have an opposition coalition that is unencumbered by the narrow Islamic agenda of PAS and ready to challenge BN as a united force?

Alas, these hopes are slowly being snuffed out by the lack of cohesion, focus and unity among the partners.

The enormity of the loss of Anwar because of the incarceration cannot be overstated when it comes to the perception that the new Pakatan lacks a strong leadership who can command the respect of the various partners.

One of the first orders of business for Pakatan Harapan was to coordinate the tabling of the motion of no-confidence in Parliament against Datuk Seri Najib Razak.

The motion was filed by the PKR MP for Petaling Jaya Selatan but was openly rejected by the DAP secretary-general who said the party would not support the motion unless it was tabled by the opposition leader Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, Anwar’s wife.

Then Dr Wan Azizah filed the motion only to be told by the speaker that it should have been submitted 14 days before Parliament began.

Nonetheless, it was eventually accepted and made it to No. 31 of the Order Paper, the last motion for the current sitting. In all probability, it will never be heard as government business has priority.

Open disagreements as to how to treat PAS also show that not all the key players were consulted or in agreement before the birth of Pakatan Harapan.

Confusing signals from PAS and PKR as to whether the old Pakatan Rakyat is still functioning or not, especially in Selangor, where PAS still has assemblymen in the state exco is disheartening.

Meanwhile, DAP and to some extent, Amanah politicians, continue to attack PAS, especially its president, Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang.

Such attacks may please their constituents but unlikely to win over new ones. They would further strengthen support for Hadi, who is seen as under siege and to some extent, isolate Malay voters.

In politics, you need friends more than you need enemies, especially when you are facing a Goliath like BN in less than three years from now.

To use football as an analogy, the opposition is not going for an open goal.

BN and Najib’s popularity is at an all-time low and yet the opposition players are tackling each other and wasting time tackling a player on the bench, PAS.

They cannot assume that Umno will not resolve its issues and that the open goal will always be there.

No doubt there are many talented players on the Pakatan Harapan team but until they have a manager or coach, they can all look up to and are united in taking on BN, they will never score the goals needed to win the cup.

There are many other reasons I think Pakatan Harapan will not capture Putrajaya in GE14 which I will elaborate on in later articles but this is the single factor that can negate all the other challenges.

Pakatan Harapan cannot take for granted the fragile hope that many voters placed on them.

Once this hope is dashed again, it may be like Humpty Dumpty’s broken shell, no number of horses or the king’s men could put it together again. – November 16, 2015.

* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insider.